It’s been a long time coming-the Middle East developing a basis for even a resemblance of a democratic society.
Historically the area has been marred by backwardness in terms of human development. Ironically the unresolved conflict with Israel only caused a stultification and expansion of the most retrograde and dysfunctional of all middle eastern type of societies-extremist, leaning towards dictatorship (on the basis of so called “stability”) and staunchly anti-Israel.
The peace treaty that occurred between Israel and Egypt in 1978, though turned the tide of the entire Arab world. For the first time a typical Muslim country signed an accord with the “enemy” Israel. By doing so in terms of “Raison D'Etat” (Richelieu would certainly have been proud) Egypt achieved something that so many prior wars have not been able to-it regained a lost territory-the Sinai peninsula. Even more importantly the country by the Nile gained enormous advantage in terms of promised and promptly delivered American aid reaching an average of $1.5 billion a year.
The creator and mastermind behind this development was Anwar Sadat and eventually his protégé Hosni Mubarak.
Coming after some disastrous wars with Israel it was quite understandable that the Egyptian leadership was eager to create some “stability” and work on possible re-match with Israel. The irony is that by doing so they actually tasted for the first time the success of re-gaining territory and receiving an enormous amount of material and monetary aid by concluding a peace agreement.
The huge achievement in terms of national strategy could be assessed by comparison with Syria’s intransigent (and largely unsuccessful) position towards Israel which has not been able to make any progress on its Golan Heights issue.
The overall success in international politics led by Anwar Sadat and later on by Hosni Mubarak gave some “borrowed” time for the regime to recuperate as it actually managed to achieve something no one in the Arab world has ever done before-get territory back from Israel.
This process allowed for the dictatorial regime from the 70’s (that started with military emergency rule in 1952) to establish itself and continue its suppression of dissidents based on the general thought of “stability”
The government, however, didn’t realize that the Egyptian society of the 21st century is intrinsically different from the one in the 70’s. As the years passed by after Sadat and Mubarak came into power, the young people of Egypt received access to the internet, facebook, tweeter and generally more information about the world. They are well informed and keep tabs of the events occurring in America and other countries and how people in developed nations live.
The breaking point for the Middle East came from an absolutely unsuspecting country-Tunisia. Interestingly enough the youth in Tunisia has grown internet and facebook savvy somewhat simultaneously with the ones in Egypt. The difference is that Tunisia is relatively small country with 10 million people while Egypt is much more populous, with close to 80 million.
Additionally the outgoing elite of Tunisia, has never been militarily trained or involved as much as the one in Egypt. Naturally that explains the differences between the developments in Tunisia where the dictator Ben Ali left quickly and Egypt where Mubarak seems to be digging in. He seems to be trying to employ the array of measures available to dictatorial governments-encouraging his “supporters” which are largely cronies paid by his regime to attack the people who protest against him.
What will happen in the near future in Egypt is some sort of a “stalemate”. That’s exactly what the ruling class is hoping for-“a no man’s land” where they can deploy the army to supposedly “restore order”.
Those politicians as Mubarak of the 70’s don’t understand that the Egyptian society is quite grown and different from what they are accustomed to. It also shows that they have lost touch with the very people they claim to represent.
They will be gone eventually after an enormous pain and suffering and after the military who is thought to be the real “king maker” in Egypt makes up its mind.
The world is hopeful that the proud country of Egypt will truly rise to what today’s global society expects from it-to be a democratic establishment with opportunities for its young citizens.
As for the “Muslim Brotherhood”, as much as they are feared, they are not near the head of the current rebellion. The regime change is being instigated by the “people” not by the islamists. This could be the only chance the world has to encourage a democratic development in the Middle East as the new democratic movement does need encouragement and support.
In light of that, the American and European leadership should certainly embrace the wave of democratization in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan and not be afraid to clearly state its commitment to people’s free will and the right to choose its own government.
Waiting idly in the sidelines would not only encourage dictators to hold on to power as it happened in Belorus but also have a devastating effect on the hopes of people for better lives and freedom.
“The ideas expressed in the article are sole property of the author”
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